Hello Fellow Consumers, Producers, Economic Citizens!
Welcome to the new Global Economic Landscape. Let’s terraform!
There’s this coronavirus serial killer stalking the globe. After much hesitation, the US has declared a national emergency, and the economy is in “lockdown”.
Both the virus and the economic lockdown have people terrified with competing and compounding visions of doom.
Don’t get stuck in a doom loop, people! This is not a Trolley Problem. Let’s think this thing through. From the top…
So! Who’s with me? Let’s #RenegotiateAmerica! Let’s…wait! Where are you going?
Back to the Inaction Rationalization in Progress:
People are pretty apocalyptic to begin with, so you can see how thoughts would race to this zero sum scenario: “Stop being pie in the sky! @#$%& Renegotiate. If you flatten the curve of the virus, you’ll tank the economy. And if you tank the economy, there will be many more deaths from other causes, like suicide from economic distress, for one. And anyway - people die all the time. Like from flu and heart disease, and we don’t stop the economy for THAT, so what’s the big deal here?”
Whoa! Dude. Let me just speak to that flu thing for a second:
This is a new virus, no one is immune. We need to “flatten the curve” on it. If left unrestrained, it will eclipse the flu by orders of magnitude. If flattened, we may end up with fewer deaths than the flu and that will be a resounding measure of success!
This raises a question: why do we put up with so many people dying of flu? One reason so many die is the fact that they feel they have to go to work even if they’re sick - because otherwise they won’t get paid. So they go to work and spread the disease. An upside of this pandemic may be to drive home the idea that people who are sick must stay at home - and be legally supported in doing so.
Speaking of losses and gains in life expectancy: some calculate that with the shutdown, we’re getting a drop in air pollution - which will lead to a substantial net gain…er…reduced loss of life (loss of air pollution deaths). Also, perhaps there will be fewer traffic accidents due to less driving about. And other causes may be affected. That’s neat! While the virus kills and the lack of hospital capacity also kills - the shutdown itself has a life saving element. What will be the final net gain/loss? What lessons will be learned?
Of course, the economic apocalyptans say the shutdown will have dire negative health impacts. Unemployed people can’t eat or get health care. The worst thing you can have is a bad economy!!!
Let’s consider.
The fear of a bad economy assumes that the pre-covid economy was a good economy, with the best health and quality of life outcomes that anyone could expect. Actually - it wasn’t.
In fact, this thing we call “The Economy” - which is made up of a lot of cool things - is also bundled up with a lot of crap. In this mix of good and crap, our national and global health outcomes are for many people inexcusably pretty bad. We’re just used to how bad it is and seem to accept such poor outcomes.
Note The Economy did very little to prevent this situation - even though it should have seen this coming and planned for it. Allegedly, there was some planning. The BEST planning. The US, had the highest ranking of planning and preparedness in the world. We’re about to see how accurate that ranking was.
In any case, right now we have a golden opportunity to examine this economy of ours, unbundle it, tease apart the good from the crap. Hey! We can launder it! (Not money laundering, whole economy laundering : )) Wash that economy. It fits with the overall hygeine mania sweeping the planet.
And here we are. Life is suddenly, (unexpectedly, but super predictably) paused. The economy can and should be officially paused, too. #PauseTheEconomy. Folks are in a rush to restart it - try to get it back to its old ways. The rush is to avoid considering a new way. But the universe has conspired.
We have been given a shock of time and space, to see things with fresh eyes.
While we pause, sheltered in place, socially isolating and quarantining - this is a golden opportunity to consider what we truly want the economy to be like. A time to explore, reconsider, reconfigure and renegotiate this thing we call The Economy.
Here’s that inspiring comic strip again:
This is a historic situation. You don’t often find the economy paused like this. Yes, parts of it are still vibrating along at a powerful pace - but big chunks are paused. A Sting song comes to mind. Seventh Wave: “At the stillpoint of destruction, At the center of the fury…”
And now, people are talking about the possibilities. Of course, much of the talk is anxious discussion of paths back to the status quo. But some is more expansive, more open to the desires and potential of people.
“Stuck in Second Gear” - 2 Drives
I’m going to focus on two overlapping drives in this situation: Transform and/or Restore. I say “overlapping” because it’s not zero sum. You can be drawn to both approaches, and want a mixture. Transform some things, restore others. You have the power!
Transformers want to push the envelope of this situation with full gusto, are open to the transformative possibilities. I feel the #BasicIncome set has been pioneering this for some time. The Yang Gang and Scott Santens have been on the front lines of the conversation - and they didn’t need a virus to ponder a new path. FYI, here’s my favorite Go-To article for explaining why a Basic Income is a billion times better than a Jobs Guarantee. A thorough intro to the concept.
Restorationists want to get things “back to normal” as soon as possible. A great example of this is from the New York Times: The US Shut Down Its Economy. Here’s What Needs to Happen In Order To Restart It.
To summarize this restorationist take - in response to the coronavirus, our public health strategy requires we close businesses and limit daily activities. This is paired with “an economic strategy for putting large parts of the economy on ice.” The trick is to do it in such a way that the job cuts are just “a quick blip of prevention” rather than “a devastating spiral into an economic depression.”
Allegedly, economists say you need a “v-shaped” recovery, where growth plunges (due to the shutdown), but then shoots right back up. If that doesn’t happen - we would fall into a “Doom Loop”:
…a situation in which an even moderately protracted shutdown of economic activity permanently kills waves of small businesses - and possibly entire industries, like airlines - that cannot survive very long without customers.
In order to prevent the Doom Loop, economists prescribe loans to businesses to cover lost revenues, with some disagreement on whether the loans should be forgiven if companies don’t lay off workers. But, “Companies are only half the equation”. (Finally! A look at human beings!)
Lawmakers must also keep money flowing to workers affected by the ecoomic chill so they can continue to buy groceries, pay mortgage or rent and seek medical care if they are injured or sick. One way to do that is by helpign businesses - and hopefully keeping as many people as possible on payrolls, even if they are not working.”
So close! “Workers, even if they are not working” - in other words, human beings. Intrinsically. Whether or not they are jacked in to the economic merry-go-round. You can see the article is flirting with #BasicIncome. But will it make it all the way? Love, marriage, kids, the whole nine yards?
What a historic time. It’s great to see the present administration considering checks for people. But annoying to see much more headed to companies and feeding the beast, rather than to all us humans. Also annoying on the other side is the fixation on “needs testing” - although it looks like that is waning. Can’t stress enough how basic income is much better than needs testing or a jobs guarantee). Seriously. Needs testing is evil. And needless.
But as you can see, the goal is to keep our economy moving ever faster, keeping that trajectory and volume ever expanding.
You need an unemployment system that in this moment can pivot to 100 percent reimbursement to 100 percent of people who are not at work,” said Heather Boushey, the president of the Washington Center for Equitable Growth, a think tank focused on inequality and growth. “And wage replacement for people who have hours cut back.”
But for other things, what about just freezing mortgages, rents, and having a massive debt renegotiation program? A Biblical Jubilee? A John Oliver makeover?
This urge to keep churning the high-waste, high clickbait, high exploitation, high externalities, “push product or perish” economy is understandable, but…don’t we have other options?
Is it really an either, or choice? V-Shaped Recovery or Doom Loop?
Now with some industries, the V recovery is obviously required. We all do want Restaurants to bounce right back in a V. Some ideas on how to make that happen here. Restaurants are, I would say, essential for the world, quality of life, being human.
But there is a lot of non-essential stuff which has bloated the economy. This might be a great time to parse that out and ditch it.
What’s the oppostive of a Doom Loop?
How about a “Delight Pivot”? A controlled demolition of the phony part of the economy? This is what people should be talking about. First, they should be able to identify how much of the economy is phony. This isn’t really a “contraction” of the economy, so much as applying the KonMari method to the economy. Decluttering it from some of the terrible incentives. Leaving just the parts that spark joy for everyone.
There has got to be a way to achieve that. And we have months to think about this!
Hours of months!
And no more excuses to avoid thinking about it.
I hope to get back to this theme and elaborate on it when/if I make it through the storm!
See you on the other side. In the meantime, please use the hashtags: #RenegotiateAmerica | #ReconfigureTheEconomy
Because, seriously. Andrew Yang’s slogan is, “Move Humanity Forward” - but that’s not really what’s going on. We’re here to #RenegotiateAmerica. Some people have much better negotiation skills, and they keep moving up, and locking everyone out of the economy. Now, the economy is in lockdown, and it’s time for everyone to brush up on their negotiation - and those people with skills to help people see clearly what they want, and what’s possible in an economy - need to step up and facilitate some epic renegotiations.
That reminds me - check out the awesome WeTheEconomy series of videos. Also, read Jaron Lanier’s “Who Owns the Future”. And the classic David Graeber, Debt: The First 5000 years. So many cool things out there.
Gracias a la Vida, que me ha dado tanto.
PS: If anyone is up for designing the T-shirt, that would be awesome. Here’s a cheesy mockup I did, but a) we can’t use those icons, and b) don’t be limited by this - I’m sure you have much better design ideas! Even if I’m not around, the #RenegotiateAmerica meme must live on.
#RenegotiateAmerica! Share the pdf here.