Our "Theory of Change"
Why we do what we do. Let's think it through!
This post is excerpted from our Footprint to Wings newsletter of February 28, 2020.
Dear Zero Carbon Player,
Heads Up! We’ve been taking a deep dive into the structure and content of the Zero Carbon Playbook (Yes! We’re writing a book!) to help Any Given Player figure out just how to Go. All. The. Way. to zero carbon and beyond.
It's an epic challenge. And we're taking it on. From increments to endgame. With YOU! And a rugged theory of change.
[Update: Here’s an overview of our whole approach, done as a “just in case I die, I better get an overview out” webinar last week. You’re welcome to take a look now, or wait for the more polished series. Diving in now? You might be Dream Team material! Talk to me about getting involved!]
Now back to our "theory of change" post in progress.
What's this "Theory of Change," you ask?
Well, if you’re a nonprofit (which we are!), you exist to solve a problem.
You identify the problem and say, "Here's what we're going to do about it."
You "theory of change" is where you explain why you think the things you're planning to do will lead to the changes that solve the problem.
To be an effective nonprofit, you need a lot of people to say "Oh yeah! That makes sense! That will solve the problem! And it's so do-able! I want to be a part of that!" And then you connect people to the work and we all get it done together and it's super AMAZING!!!!
Note that some theories of change neither stimulate action, nor describe it effectively. We always need to be testing our theories of change and improving upon them.
Now for a sneak peek at our theory of change.
For those who are visually inclined, here’s a quick comparison of our theory of change, and the dominant theories out there.
Let’s explore!
First, here's what our theory isn't.
We're not the traditional activist oriented, market oriented or technology oriented climate group. What do I mean by that?
Traditional Activist Approach
Rallying cry: "Climate change is real. We have the solutions. We just lack political will." The problem is identified as "lack of political will". The theory of change is thus, "Get out the vote. Put the right people in office. Once in, they will enact the right laws to legislate our selected solutions, and that will take care of the problem. Also, people are going to need some consciousness and lifestyle change, but we'll talk about that later. First, let's get these laws passed.”
Market Oriented Approach
Rallying cry: "Climate change is real. We have the solutions, but they aren't priced properly. We need the right price on carbon." The theory of change here is economic. The problem is identified as market failure. Putting a price on carbon will correct the failure. Through the course of spending money, it will all work out. (Note: putting a price on carbon also requires political will to pass pricing laws.)
Technology Oriented Approach
Rallying cry: "Climate change is real. We have the solutions, and more coming down the pike. Technological innovation will come to our rescue in 5...4...3...2..." (Heads up, you'll need political will here, too. A lot of innovation spending comes from the public domain and government incentives.)
All good stuff! And yet.
Don’t get me wrong! We definitely need technological innovation; to properly price things; to make great laws; and to hold politicians accountable.
And yet, these theories of change are just barely scratching the surface.
What's our beef* with these theories?
First, the role of people in these scenarios is limited. Your job is to A) vote correctly; B) spend correctly; C) have faith in technology. And maybe do some personal carbon footprint stuff. Aside from that, don't trouble your pretty little head over the details. Leave it to the experts.
Second, and more important - these theories haven't identified the real problem, not to scale, at any rate.
It's not that "Climate change is real. We have the solutions. We just lack political will | the right price | technology."
What's really happening is that:
Climate change sucks! It is forcing us to make changes at an epic scale. Decarbonize the entire economy? No way!
We don't have the solutions. Sure, solutions exist. But at scale: All of our solutions SUCK.
It's not just political will we lack. It's will in general. Aversion to change. We ALL have conflicted feelings about doing anything substantial about this. A few token gestures here and there ("but I recycle!"), a few market and tech tweaks. Not going to cut it.
We've got our work cut out for us, Players. This is a Planet Scale problem.
Not to freak you out or anything.
Wait, are you freaking out?
Don't Panic!
It gets much better!
First: It's good news that all the solutions suck. Recognizing this fact is the first step toward a truly genius outcome. Ed Catmull wrote a whole book about it called "Creativity Inc." [Note to talent scouts, Ed Catmull and Pixar are welcome to join the Dream Team to turn the Race to Zero Carbon into a national pastime. They are not only great story tellers, they are great with data & visualization, which is needed for the Zero Carbon Scoreboard. Help us recruit them.]
Second: It's great news that we recognize our ambivalence. The sooner you process your conflicting feelings, the sooner you'll be on the road to a real solution. Here's a great video that explains why that is. Watch this video. (So true. The frogs! The drinks! The drugs! I’m sure you can relate.)
Our theory of change looks at this situation like a golden opportunity to have some epic, transformational FUN. A game is basically a problem solving activity approached with a playful attitude. This is a super wicked problem to solve. That makes it a super wicked game.
[Imagine gif of Chris Isaak playing “SUPER Wicked Game”]
And because this is a collective problem we have to solve - that makes it a collective game. Multiplayer participatory!
Perhaps I am not doing justice to our theory of change here. For those who want to go deeper into the details, here’s the webinar with a step by step explanation of the fabulous thing we're making for you!
Wishing you a Lovely Leap Year,
To zero carbon and beyond in 2020,
Rezwan
*Speaking of beef, did you catch the Super Bowl ad by the beef industry trying to scare people about plant based meat? Not to be outdone, Impossible meats replied with this ad. Food Spoiler Alert! These links may distress you about food. I don't want that for you. If it helps, here is a book about ingredients in our food to demystify the chemical names. And here's more ingredient food for thought with the "Dorito Effect". Bon apetit!